On 17 April 2007 the United Nations Security Council will hold an open debate exploring the potential impact that climate change could have on global security.

The aim of the debate is to raise awareness of a set of significant future security risks facing the international community as a result of failing to resolve this shared dilemma, to promote a shared understanding of these risks, and to explore ways to address them.

The focus of the debate will be on the security implications of a changing climate, including through its impact on potential drivers of conflict (such as access to energy, water, food and other scarce resources, population movements and border disputes). 

No other international forum has yet addressed these issues at this level. A Security Council discussion will therefore make a useful initial contribution, while recognising that it is for other UN bodies (in particular the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) to pursue other aspects of climate change that are not within the Security Council’s mandate.

While the physical effects of climate change and what can be done about them are important issues, it is their potential impact on security that is the proposed focus of this Security Council debate.

Notes

The debate will focus on the potential impact of climate change on 6 issues closely associated with threats to international peace and security:

a) Border disputes

A significant proportion of current threats to international peace and security are disputes over borders or land. Melting ice and rising sea levels caused by climate change are likely to result in major changes to the world’s physical landmass during this century. Will political and maritime borders change as well? Areas of concern include the possible submergence of entire small island states, dramatically receding coastlines, and the development of new shipping routes. These could all lead to disputes over maritime zones and other territorial rights. Such disputes may require resolution through international politics as well as international law.

b) Migration

On current projections, substantial parts of the world risk being left uninhabitable by rising sea levels, reduced freshwater availability or declining agricultural capacity. This will exacerbate existing migratory pressures from rural areas to cities, from unproductive land to more fertile land, and across international borders. Some estimates suggest up to 200 million people may be displaced by the middle of the century. Migration does not in itself lead directly to conflict. But it can alter the ethnic composition and population distribution within and between states, which can increase the potential for instability and conflict -  particularly in situations of resource scarcity, and in already sensitive cross-border areas.

c) Energy supplies

There is already extensive discussion on the relationship between energy resources and the risk of conflict, in terms of competition over scarce energy resources, security of supply, and the role energy resources play once conflict has broken out. Climate change is expected to complicate this relationship still further, presenting us with a shared dilemma about how to balance our climate and energy objectives while preserving security. Some nations will seek to change their sources of energy supply to reduce emissions, or for other reasons. Others will have to change their sources of energy supply as a result of the physical impacts of climate change, for example changing patterns in the availability of hydro-electric power due to glacier melt and changing river flows. Gradual, managed changes are unlikely to lead to conflict. More sudden changes might.

d) Other resource shortages

limate change is likely to make essential resources (notably freshwater, cultivable land, crop yields and fish stocks) more scarce in many parts of the world, particularly in already vulnerable societies. Resource scarcity threatens people's livelihoods, especially when changes occur relatively quickly.  Much depends on the adequacy of adaptation strategies. But increased scarcity increases the risk of competition over resources within and between communities and states. This can create instability, increasing vulnerability to conflict. This is already well documented in the case of freshwater, whose availability may decrease by at least 20-30% in some regions as a result of climate change, while populations continue to increase.

e) Societal stress

ome states consider climate change the most serious threat to their development in general, and achieving the Millennium Development Goals in particular.  The 2006 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change noted that climate change was a major challenge to poverty reduction, affecting the poorest countries earliest and most.  The tensions that climate change through its impact on development - and hence inequality - could produce within and between states might not in themselves necessarily lead to conflict.  But in some weaker states - eg where severe inequalities occur among different groups in society, for example on ethnic grounds - political violence within and between states may become more likely.

f) Humanitarian crises

Climate change is likely to increase the risk of extreme weather events that may become sudden humanitarian emergencies. There are already indications that such events, especially on a large scale, can exacerbate societal and cross-border stresses, with potential consequent political and security impacts. There is a proven correlation between drought and the likelihood of high intensity conflicts in some regions, and some governments have struggled to cope with the social consequences of major natural disasters.

联合国安理会首次就气候变化问题召开讨论会

联合国安理会于2007年4月17日举行一次公开会议，讨论气候变化给全球安全带来的潜在影响。

讨论该议题的目的一方面要让国际社会意识到，一旦气候变化控制遭遇失败，人类将在未来面临一系列潜在而重大的安全隐患，另一方面还要达成共识，提出切实可行的应对方案。

会议将集中讨论气候变化所带来的安全隐患，其中最重要的是讨论气候变化对引发世界冲突的催化作用。这些冲突包括：能源、水、食物以及其他稀缺资源的供给、人口流动、边境争纷等。

这是有史以来就气候变化问题开展的最高级别的国际论坛。联合国安理会首次开展关于气候变化问题的讨论是十分有意义的，引起了联合国其他部门，尤其是《联合国气候变化框架公约》有关方的重视，促使其寻求在安理会责权之外的气候变化解决方案。

气候变化所引发的自然灾害以及如何采取相应的应对措施是问题的根本，其带来的潜在安全隐患也正是此次安理会讨论大会中要强调的内容。

编者按

大会将重点从以下六个方面，讨论气候变化给世界和平与安全带来的严重危险及潜在影响。

a) 边界争端

威胁当今世界和平与安全的一个最为突出的因素是边界争端或土地纠纷。冰川的消融、海平面的上升，这些因气候变化而产生的消极影响，有可能在本世纪引发地球陆地格局的重大变化。那么，是否随之也会引发政治和海域边界争端呢？气候变化正深刻地影响着全人类，我们所担心的问题是，全球的小岛国是否会因此而被海水淹没，海岸线的急剧消退以及新航线的发展趋势，而所有这些都可能导致国家海域及领土争端，这些问题恐怕只有运用国际政治手段、通过国际法律的途径才能得以解决。

b)移民

从目前的状况来看，海平面的上升、淡水资源的减少以及农业生产能力的下降，将使世界上绝大多数地区沦为不适宜人类居住的不毛之地，这将进一步加剧从乡村到城镇、从土地贫瘠地区到丰腴地区乃至跨国界的移民潮所带来的压力。相关的评估数据显示，到本世纪中期，预计将会有近2亿的居民从现有的住所迁移。移民本身不会直接导致冲突，但是却会改变民族内部以及民族与民族之间的种族结构与人口分布状况，从而催生不稳定和冲突的因素，这种情况在资源匮乏地区以及敏感的边境交界地区尤甚。

c)能源供应

考虑到人类对稀缺能源资源的争夺、能源供应安全以及能源在冲突爆发的情况下所扮演的角色，我们已经对能源资源和冲突风险之间的关系进行过深入的探讨。气候变化将会使二者关系进一步复杂化，使人类陷入进退两难的困境——在确保安全的基础上，各国如何做到维护气候系统和完成能源指标之间的平衡。为了减少碳排量，或是出于其他原因，一些国家试图改变他们的能源供应来源。还有一些国家是考虑到气候变化所带来的冰川消融、海平面上升等物理影响，必须要改变他们的能源供应来源，如运用水力来发电。通过这些措施，使可控制的改变不会引发冲突。但是，一些突如其来的改变可能还是难以避免冲突的发生。

d)其他资源的短缺

气候变化可能致使全球很多地区尤其是局势动荡地区的基本资源（主要有淡水、可耕地面积、粮食产量以及鱼类资源）更为匮乏。资源短缺直接影响着人类的生存，尤其是在遭遇突发变故的情况下。我们应该如何应付这样的局面，在很大程度上要取决于我们制定的战略对策。然而，持续的资源匮乏加剧了群体内部和国家内部，以及群体与群体之间、国家与国家之间生发“资源大战”的风险，是引起动荡与冲突的根源。大量证据表明，由于气候变化的影响，地球上某些地区的淡水资源将会减少20－30％，而该地区的人口却还在持续增长。

e)社会性的压力

一些国家将气候变化列为其发展进程中最为重要的威胁因素，并为此特别制定了《千年发展目标》。2006年，《斯特恩全球气候变化经济评估报告》指出，气候变化是扶贫工作中的绊脚石，最先遭受气候变化影响以及影响最为严重的往往是那些最贫困的国家和地区。气候变化阻碍经济发展，进而在民族内部以及不同民族之间产生贫富悬殊的不平等现象，这种局面必然会引发种族冲突。对一些实力薄弱的国家来说，比如在社会不同群体之间发生的严重不平等现象；在种族多元化的国家内，更有可能在种族内部以及各种族之间引发政治骚乱。

f)人道主义危机

气候变化可能会增加极端气候事件的几率，引发意外的人道主义危机。有迹象表明，这样大规模的气候事件会加剧社会危机和边境问题，并可能引发一连串不良的政治影响和安全问题。事实证明，一些地区的干旱可能会引发这些地区过度频繁的冲突事件，这两者之间有一定的相关性。目前，很多国家已经开始着手应对由于重大自然灾害而引发的诸多社会问题。